This method revolves around taking a hands on, researched based approach which is deliberately rigid to provide repeatability while pragmatic to allow for the vagries of Racing. There are 3 levels to the method.
- The section process
- The mechanics of Laying
- Betting Bank management
Cutting to the chase, it is low priced runners that are the target here. Such an approach means taking on high probability opposition which on the one hand will cost less when they win but stand an above average chance of landing the prize.
Statistics point to favourites on average win roughly 30-40% of the races and that is probably even higher for the runners in the short priced sector.
There is no magic formula for picking the selections but there are a number of aspects that can cast a doubt over the market’s confidence and therefore present an opportunity.
Obviously ploughing through every race would be a very time consuming process but by concentrating only on those races where the market leaders trade at prices of 3.0 or below makes for a much easier life.
The Selection Process.
- Understand why the market thinks the runner is the most likely winner. This may be based on general or last race form, the trainer or jockey, course preference or conditions, speed, gossip, a drop in grade of race, staying or jumping ability, weight advantage, jockey allowance or just that it is up against a field of no-hopers. There must be a reason for favouritism and this reason must be understood.
- Look at what the runner under review is up against. Does the rest of the field really have no chance against the favourite? Go over the merits of each of them on the look out for a hidden gem ready to shine or a lowly rated runner capable in the right circumstances of causing an upset.
- Finally go back to the favourite again with a view to pulling apart the basis on which the market has built its faith. If there is form to be checked and replays to be watched, these are all good places to build a case against. There are so many factors that could spoil the expected outcome and the game is to try and find as many as possible. The circumstances are different with every race but building a picture of possible defeat is the point of the research..
If after all this checking there are a few runners to consider then its onwards to the betting exchange to see what deal there is to be had.
The mechanics of Laying.
- There never any rush to place a bet. The markets are fluid situations and you can easily end up over paying or getting caught out by a reasonable runner getting withdrawn and locking you into a very likely loss situation. Market traders push and pull the markets around in the run up to a race, distorting prices and creating opportunities in the process, which means rarely get involved too early.
- It pays to have a price worked out before hand and if needs be check what a bookmaker like the Tote are offering. Have a maximum limit, say 2.5 and see if it can be beaten.
- Only click the “in-play” option if it is a few moments before the start and the bet hasn’t been matched. This keeps the risk of getting clobbered by a late withdrawal of a runner to a minimum.
- Finally, if there are lingering doubts or the selection drops significantly before the start there is no shame in walking away.
Betting Bank Management.
- Keep liability fixed as a percentage against the size of the betting bank. Starting with a Bank of £100 implies a liability limit of £5.00 per lay, never exposing the bank to more than a 5% risk per lay. Reducing the stakes to maintain this rule protects the ability to fight another day and is far more important than trying to claw back a loss that has dented the carefully nurtured bank. A golden rule is “better to win a little than lose a lot"
- “Take the money and run” it really couldn’t be simpler. If the first lay goes well I pack up and leave.
- The misfortune to take a hit at the first attempt is never far away, then the game shifts to one of recovery mode and any thought of a profit is put firmly on hold. Unless the first lay was under a price 2.0 (evens money) it is going to take at least 2 more lays to get back to level pegging. If this works out and back to square one is achieved or even just slightly ahead, walk away rather than risk a loss again. This is assuming all goes to plan but real life has a nasty habit of getting in the way of best laid plans, so if things continue to deteriorate walk away with a loss in tow.
- Set target levels and this is where the 5% stake limits are calculated from. Don’t work out on a day to day basis what 5% of the bank is, but set a target level that must be breached and then kept above before a new target and stake level is set.
Example: Starting with £50, set a target of £100 and use £2 liability lays to get there. Once the target is passed and kept above for 5 sessions set a new target of £200 and increase the liability to £5 (5% of the £100 target).
If things had go badly and the £100 level is breached drop the liability level back to £2 until back above and stabilised.
- Take a “day on, day off” approach to withdrawing funds from the betting bank. Once the bank up to £1000 begin the process of skimming off whatever had been generated every other day. This has two effects, the obvious is the income stream it produces, and the other is the controlled rise of the betting bank which means increasing stakes and increasing income over the long term. If the betting bank falls below £1000 then the income stream stops until that level is passed again and kept above for 5 sessions.
- Topping up the betting bank is a cardinal sin. Adjusting to using lower liability lays once a level has been breached is an uncomfortable feeling as it compounds the sense of failure and loss. The temptation to put fresh funds in is easily given in to but impedes the learning process. Being able to adapt to changing circumstances is key to staying afloat when losses are incurred, adding funds just fudges the issue.It is just totally unrealistic to expect to make money every day
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